A Turnaround with a Bottleneck and a Solution

The new economic data from the Autumn 2026 Joint Economic Forecast offer hope at first glance: After several years of weakness, the German economy has been back in recovery since late 2025. Although the institutes expect GDP growth of 1.3% this year, it is too early to sound the all-clear. The recovery remains unusually weak, not least because of the shrinking labor force potential caused by demographic change.

An effective response to this bottleneck has long been available. Recent data from the Federal Statistical Office show just how indispensable migration is to the labor market: More than a quarter (27%) of all employees have an immigrant background. In occupations facing critical shortages, they are already keeping the system running, including hospitality (56%), freight transport (41%) and nursing (33%).

The long-term perspective also shows that labor market integration takes time above all. While people from the EU quickly gain a foothold thanks to freedom of movement rules (an employment rate of 89% among men who have lived in Germany for less than five years), third-country nationals make significant progress over time: After a longer stay (20 to 25 years), men from the Near and Middle East, for example, reach an employment rate of 87% and women 79%, nearly matching the overall average for all 25- to 59-year-olds (88% and 81%, respectively). Against the backdrop of recent election results, however, this essential pillar of efforts to secure skilled labor is now coming under pressure. In the medium term, this threatens to worsen the demographic labor shortage.

These topics also caught our attention:

• Job engine with the brakes on: The expansion of renewable energy could increase employment in Germany from 436,300 to 706,100 jobs by 2035. But if current legislative proposals concerning solar power, wind power and heat pumps slow that expansion, nearly 187,000 fewer jobs will be created, according to a GWS study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation.

• “Work, work, build a little house”: As the latest HDI study of working life shows, 59% of respondents now work solely or mainly for the money. Among 55- to 64-year-olds, almost two-thirds even say they would prefer to quit immediately if their finances allowed it.

• Salary comparison: A ZEIT calculator (€) uses current data from the Federal Statistical Office and the Federal Employment Agency to show how your income compares by age, industry and qualifications.

• New platform for EU jobs: The European Commission has revamped its EU Careers website. The portal brings together job opportunities across all fields, from internships and fixed-term contracts to permanent positions.

This text first appeared as an editorial in the weekly politjobs newsletter. If you would like to receive this newsletter with the latest jobs in politics directly by email every Wednesday, you can subscribe here .