Demographic trap in East Germany: Why collapse looms without immigration

No immigration, no future?

After decades of emigration and rapid ageing, the working population in the east is drastically shrinking: within 30 years, the number of people of working age has plummeted by 23% to 7.74 million, while the proportion of the 67+ generation has nearly doubled to almost a quarter.

However, while migration is debated emotionally and mostly negatively during the election campaign for the upcoming state elections, a brief report from the Institute of the German Economy (IW) paints a different picture. Without immigration, the population of working age in the east would decline by 22.4% by 2045 (national average: -17.4%). As a result, only 44.2% of the total population in East Germany would actually be available to the labour market. The strongest declines are expected in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (-24.6%) and Saxony-Anhalt (-24.3%), while Saxony stands at -19.1%.

The IW therefore warns of a dangerous vicious cycle: an anti-immigration policy or increased emigration of younger people accelerates ageing. This worsens regional infrastructure, further reduces attractiveness for skilled workers, and hampers new immigration. To avert this collapse, there is hardly any way around a targeted immigration policy aimed at stabilising the working population, as the authors emphasise.

These topics have also interested us:

• Administration ≠ Boring: Young people are increasingly drawn to public service due to crises, AI, and uncertain job markets. As reported by the Tagesspiegel (€), civil service jobs attract with security, stable salaries, and a secure pension.

• Labour market at a standstill: According to the IAB LinkedIn Industry Change Radar, the dynamics of job and industry changes have sunk to a new low. In light of the poor economic situation, employees have increasingly held onto their positions since 2025, while companies have become more cautious with new hires.

• AI is not a job killer?: The federal government sees no evidence that AI is worsening job prospects for those under 25. The trend is hardly separable from economic weakness and structural change. Nevertheless, the impacts of AI on the labour market continue to be monitored.

This text first appeared as an editorial in the weekly politjobs newsletter. If you would like to receive this newsletter with the latest jobs from the political sector directly via email every Wednesday, you can subscribe here.